Lock-in to high-carbon energy threatens climate goal
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The IEA's 2011 World Energy Outlook (WEO), launched on 9 November, says that developing countries are set to contribute most to increasing energy demand by one-third between 2010 and 2035. By then, fossil fuels will account for 75% of energy use, and renewables for 18%. This could lead to a 20% rise in carbon dioxide emissions and an average temperature rise of over 3.5°C, which would increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts such as floods, drought, water scarcity, lower crop productivity, more intense and frequent storms and sea-level rise.
Current energy trends could therefore jeopardise a goal to limit an increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, agreed by more than 90 countries under the UN Cancún Agreements of December 2010. The findings will put pressure on countries to agree a comprehensive and legally binding framework to tackle climate change during the UN Conference of the Parties (COP17) later this month. The European Commission wants to see the talks in Durban, South Africa, lead to more countries signing up to emissions reduction pledges and tougher targets, all countries developing market mechnanisms to drive cost-efficient mitigation, policies to reduce emissions from sectors such as agricultures and shipping, and instruments to catalyse climate finance.
The IEA warns that 80% of energy-related CO2 emissions permitted between now and 2035, to limit the atmospheric stock of greenhouse gases at 450 parts per million consistent with a 2°C temperature rise, are already locked-in by existing capital stock, including power stations, buildings and factories. Without further action by 2017, energy-related infrastructure would account for the entire global carbon budget within 24 years.
Other IEA findings include:
- Oil prices are expected to reach US$120/barrel by 2035. Oil extraction will peak in the next five years and if invesment in production slows, oil prices could hit US$150/barrel.
- Subsidies for renewables amounted to US$64 billion in 2010, compared with US$409 billion for fossil fuels.
- For every US$1 of investment in cleaner technology avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional US$4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for rising emissions.